Perioada de “bull-market” (piata cu trend crescator!) nu se va incheia pana la jumatatea anului 2017, spun analistii Societe Generale, intr-un raport transmis clientilor pe 26 noiembrie. Potrivit acestora, la nivel global, pe ansamblu, 2016 va fi un an bun pentru actiuni, iar pietele vor fi capabile sa preia, fara a fi afectate prea puternic, inasprirea politicii monetare a FED-ului american!
Economia SUA va continua sa creasca – desi indicii americani nu vor mai avea aceleasi evolutii spectaculoase, Europa va continua procesul de recuperare, iar China nu va avea totusi parte de un “hard landing”.
2016 va fi un nou an bun pentru actiuni spun analistii Societe Generale, care se asteapta ca, in ciuda unei cresteri a volatilitatii in urma majorarii dobanzii cheie de catre FED, indicii bursieri sa continue sa evolueze in zona pozitiva, prognozand ca final de piata bull jumatatea anului 2017 – cu circa 10-12 luni inainte de momentul la care aceiasi analisti estimeaza ca va avea loc maximul/varful ciclului economic actual (adica a doua jumatate a anului 2018).
Favorite sunt, din punctul de vedere al analistilor francezi, actiunile europene! Acestea vor beneficia de o politica monetara laxa din partea BCE, de cresterea investitiilor, de o moneda relativ depreciata si nu in ultimul rand, de continuarea fluxului de stiri pozitive;
Intr-un astfel de context, piata franceza si cea italiana vor fi cele ce vor aduce cele mai bune randamente, ca rezultat al reformelor implementate in ultimii ani si/sau aflate in curs de implementare. Spre deosebire, potentialul de randament al pietei germane este limitat, spun specialistii SG, de faptul ca este deja evaluata la niveluri destul de ridicate; in plus, presiunile de crestere a salariilor din economia germane sunt un alt factor important de plafonare a potentialului de crestere a pietei germane.
Alaturi de Franta si Italia, zona Emerging-Europe este incadrata in aceeasi categorie a pietelor “favorite”.
Din punct de vedere al alocarii pe sectoare, analistii SG au revizuit ponderea sectorului de petrol si gaze. In opinia acestora pretul petrolului va tinde spre nivelul de 60 USD/baril pana la finele lui 2016, ceea ce va permite alocarea unor dividende ceva mai consistente (un nivel mediu al randamentului dividendului estimate de analistii SG este de 6%).
Analistii SG recomanda mentinerea si/sau majorarea expunerii pe companiile ce vor beneficia de relansarea economiei europene: constructiile, transporturile, industria alimentara si retailul alimentar, fiind printre acestea. Spre deosebire, si-au revizuit in mod negativ perspectivele privind sectorul de servicii si cel de software, precum si pe cele privind sectorul de telecomunicatii.
Pe lista de “premianti” – companii recomandate de analistii SG se afla: Royal Dutch Shell, AkooNobel, Vinci, Renault, Accor, Sanofi, Credit Agricole, Intesa Sanpaolo, AXA, Aviva, Publicis, Enel.
Chapter 1: The countdown to the end of the bull market has started Where we stand in the business cycle? The S&P 500 has been up by 183% (227% taking into account the dividend) over the past sixand-a-half years. This business cycle started in June 2009 according to the US National Bureau of Economic Research and we expect it to peak in H2 2018. The first hike from the Fed, which is used to signal the start of the countdown, could take place next month. According to the US National Bureau of Economic Research data, a US business cycle lasts 60 months on average. The current one is already at 76 months, which makes it one of the longest since World War II (the longest one was the ten years between 1991 and 2001).
Between the start of the tightening cycle by the Fed and the top of the business cycle, we have on average four-and-a-half years. If we consider that the current tightening cycle has started with the Fed tapering in December 2013 (rather than the upcoming rate hike), the top of the business cycle should be around H2 2018, which is our central scenario. As markets are efficient, the equity bull market on average ends ten months ahead of the top of the business cycle.
In our scenario, the US GDP growth will expand by 2.8% in 2016 and 2.7% in 2017. Supported by a higher oil price, headline inflation would come back well above 2% next year. The Fed is expected to hike rates by 100 basis points in the upcoming 12 months, pushing higher long-term bond yields and the USD.
We have been strong buyers of the French and Italian equity markets in 2015. Both markets should continue to benefit from the implementation of reforms, they are still highly attractive and have the strong potential to recover their profitability.
Eurozone banks: a “must have” in 2016 Continue to be selective within the banking sectors The banking sector is one of our favourite sectors. The performance of this sector has been disappointing in 2015 but the dispersion within the sector has been huge. Three big names which account for 30% of the Eurostoxx Banks index (SX7E index) have performed particularly poorly: Banco Santander (-21%), BBVA (3%) and Deutsche Bank (1%).
Balance sheet getting stronger and stronger Banks are not completely out of the long process of balance sheet strengthening. However, the banking sector overall has gone to a lot of effort over the past year to strengthen their balance sheets. Today, most of the banks have a core tier 1 ratio above 10% and a leverage ratio above 3%. During the previous reporting season, even if bank results were quite disappointing on the profitability side they were still good on the capital strengthening side.
Improving picture for construction in Europe The construction sector would benefit from the mix of gradual macro recovery, the implementation of reforms (i.e. lower labour costs in Spain, Italy, France) and the accommodative monetary policy by the ECB. In France for example, the new housing market is expected to reach its low point in H2 2015 before recovering next year as measures to stimulate supply remain in place.
We overweight construction in our sector allocation. The sector is benefiting from strong positive earnings momentum and has outperformed the market year-to-date: 27% versus 14% for the overall market. The Construction sector in Europe is still offering a 3.5% dividend yield, slightly above the market. We particularly like Vinci (Buy) in France and ACS (Buy) in Spain.
Food retail sector supported by ECB reflation policy When looking for sectors and companies affected by ECB policy, the Food retail sector is not the first one we look at. However, the sector is highly sensitive to inflation newsflow (see chart below) and would benefit from the aggressive reflation policy implemented by the ECB. On 20 November, ECB President Mario Draghi said it “will do what it must to raise inflation as quickly as possible”. The food retail sector enjoys an inflationary environment for two reasons: 1) they have pricing power when inflation rises; 2) they have negative working capital. We are overweight the food retail sector. The sector is still trading at a very attractive valuation level with the 2016e price-to-earnings ratio at 16.3x
Eurozone tailwinds support Eastern Europe We favour Eastern Europe in the context of an improving outlook for the eurozone, given the close economic and financial ties between the two areas. Indeed, we believe that a recovery in the eurozone, together with the ECB’s QE and accommodative domestic policies, create a supportive environment for the local economies and markets of the Eastern European EU member states. Consensus growth forecasts for Eastern Europe (EU members) have been revised sharply up for 2015 and remain high for 2016 and 2017. For more details, please see our Multi Asset Snapshot – Now is the time to buy emerging Europe – Prefer equities.
France – key reforms
Retirement reform Labour reform Voted on in 2010, the retirement reform raised the legal age of retirement from 60 to 62 years. The objective of this reform was to prevent the bankruptcy of the social security system (deficit of €24bn in 2010 reduced to €10bn in 2014) and reduce the gap between the public and private sectors.
Reduction of business taxation: The CICE (Crédit d’impôt pour la compétitivité et l’emploi) cut business taxes to 33.3% in 2014 – taxes will further be cut to 32% in 2017 and to 28% in 2020 in line with the European average. It also reduced labour costs by 6% in 2014 (based on salaries < €2800/month).
Tax reductions on low salaries Constitutional reforms The Responsibility and Solidarity Pact implemented on 1 January 2015 exempts employers of minimum wage employees from paying any social security contributions for these employees.
Growth and Economic Activity Bill: Bankruptcy reform The flagship economic stimulus package, referred to as the “Loi Macron”, contained 308 measures aimed at stimulating growth, investment and employment. The measures include a reform of the labour court system by making it simpler and more efficient. The law also eases restrictions on Sunday and evening work.
Labour market reform (to be voted on in early 2016): The government is set to tackle working hours as a first step. Companies should soon be able to adjust working hours over a day, a week, or a year, as well as rest time, paid leave and overtime pay through collective agreements. The reform should also simplify the labour code by reducing the number of branch agreements from 700 at present to 200 in three years.
Italy– key reforms
The Jobs Act is a bill proposing major reforms to the Italian labour market, including a reduction of the tax burden for low salary workers, a reform of the public administration and the abolition of Article 18 of the Workers’ Statute, which protected workers from unlawful dismissal.
Administrative simplification: Various simplification measures in a wide number of areas: environmental and building permits, certification and electronic filing of administrative requests. These measures should facilitate the implementation of major projects, civil works and infrastructure.
The electoral reform law would see Italy’s voting system overhauled, and substantially reduce the power of the Senate.
Helping banks to recover collateral on bad loans more quickly, and introduced full deductibility of loan loss provisions to help banks in cleaning-up the books and accelerating the markdown of nonperforming loans.
Fiscal revolution: The government promised to reduce taxes by €45bn in the next three years. The fight against tax fraud has permitted to recover €14bn in 2014.