Erste Bank: Cresterea economica isi va mentine viteza in tarile CEE

Evolutiile economice pozitive vor continua si in trimestrul doi al anului in tarile Central si Est-Europene, spun analistii Erste Bank. Acestia estimeaza pentru Romania o crestere a PIB-ului de 5,1% pentru intreg anul 2017, chiar daca investitiile publice si atragerea de fonduri europene raman sub semnul intrebarii.

Estimarile Erste sunt cuprinse intr-un raport publicat pe 14 august ce acopera intreaga regiune CEE, regiune unde, specialistii bancii austriece consemneaza semnalele unei evolutii mai bune decat asteptarile initiale.

We foresee real GDP growth at 5.5% y/y in 2Q17, marginally below the 5.7% y/y registered in 1Q17. Foreign trade could have turned into a drag on real GDP in 2Q17 after a small positive contribution in 1Q17, as imports of goods gained more speed.

The contribution of trade and services to real GDP in 2Q17 could have been slightly smaller than in 1Q17, especially in the segment of services to companies. On a positive note, industrial production performed better in 2Q17, as mining recovered and manufacturing benefitted from rising external demand. Going forward, we expect an additional deceleration of economic growth in 2H17.

The economic sentiment indicator fell for the second month in a row in July, while consumer confidence has been on a downward trend after hitting an all-time high in March, affected by contradictory news about possible changes to the fiscal environment in the future.

The recovery of public investments in infrastructure remains uncertain, due to pressures on the state budget and modest results in the absorption of EU funds. Under these circumstances, we maintain our full-year economic growth forecast of 5.1% in 2017.

CEE Insights_Central and Eastern Europe_14 August 2017

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